By Johnathan Paoli
The ANC has declared its recent by-election victories as a renewed mandate from citizens, hailing the results as evidence of confidence in the governing party’s agenda of “renewal, discipline and service delivery”.
The party’s national spokesperson, Mahlengi Bhengu, framed the outcomes as confirmation of public trust.
“These results are not ordinary but proof that the renewal project of the ANC is yielding fruit. The people are responding to the stability, unity and discipline that is returning to the organisation,” Bhengu said.
But a closer look at voting patterns across Limpopo, the Free State, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape – where this week’s by-elections took place – reveals a more complex picture: while the ANC retained several key wards, opposition parties have made significant gains that point to shifting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 local elections.
In Ward 5, Bela Bela in the Waterberg region of Limpopo, the ANC retained the seat with 60% of the vote. While still a comfortable majority, this represents a steep decline from the 71% secured in 2021.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) surged to 35%, up from just 11% previously, signalling growing traction in a province long considered an ANC bastion.
Smaller parties like the Bushveld Residents Association (BRA) and the newly formed Defenders of African Dignity made little impact.
Voter turnout was 50%, slightly down from 55% in the last contest.
In the Lejweleputswa region of the Free State, the ANC clung onto Ward 7 in Kgotsong, Bothaville, with 50% of the vote, down from 54%.
The EFF nearly toppled the ruling party, securing 47% – a dramatic rise from its 25% share in the 2021 by-election.
The once-influential Nala Community Forum collapsed from 17% to 3%, consolidating the contest into a two-horse race.
Many have suggested the result indicates deepening contestation in the maize belt township, with the ANC under mounting pressure.
Perhaps the most symbolic battle took place in Ward 130, covering parts of Emdeni and Naledi in Soweto. Here, the ANC won with just 34% of the vote, a sharp decline from 56% in 2021 and a far cry from its dominant 89% in 2011.
ActionSA emerged as the second-largest party with 23%, edging out the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) on 22% and the EFF on 17%.
A key factor in the ANC’s hold was the Ash Mountain voting district in Naledi Extension 2, where the party secured 67% (up from 54% in 2021) on a turnout of 51%, well above the ward average of 31%.
This stronghold proved decisive in offsetting opposition gains elsewhere. Nevertheless, the long-term downward trajectory in Soweto should raise alarm bells for the ANC.
With Johannesburg’s proportional representation (PR) seats likely to disappear in the next election, many have warned that Mayor Dada Morero and other PR councillors could find themselves out of office.
While the ANC has highlighted its victories, the most dramatic story unfolded in Kou-Kamma Municipality in the Sarah Baartman District of the Eastern Cape. Early results indicate that the Patriotic Alliance (PA) captured Ward 1 in Misgund-Krakeelrivier with 48%, toppling the ANC’s 43% and routing the DA, which fell from 21% to 9%.
In Krakeelrivier itself, the PA surged from 11% in 2024 to 55%, drawing voters away from both the ANC and DA.
This marks the PA’s first-ever ward win in the Eastern Cape, reshaping the Kou-Kamma council’s balance of power.
The ANC now holds five seats (down from six), the DA three, PA two (up from one), FF+ one, and an independent one. The independent councillor, Dudley Maasdorp, is now a potential kingmaker.
Despite setbacks, the ANC is pressing ahead with its “organisational renewal”.
The party has scheduled a Special NEC on Local Government for 13 – 14 September, followed by a high-profile Roll Call of Councillors at the FNB Stadium’s GoldRush Dome on 15 September.
This gathering, the party says, will reinforce its pledge to accountability, service delivery and consequence management.
“The goal is to build a dependable corps of ANC councillors who are disciplined, people-centred, and accountable to the communities they serve,” Bhengu said.
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