By Johnathan Paoli
The latest round of municipal by-elections delivered significant political shocks across four provinces, with the ANC losing ground in key battlegrounds and independents upending voting patterns in the Northern Cape.
The DA, Patriotic Alliance, and MKP also consolidated momentum ahead of next year’s local government elections.
The results, drawn from competitive wards in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape, signal heightened volatility at local level and a shifting political landscape in several councils.
The ANC entered the by-elections seeking to stabilise its recent national downward trend but instead lost three wards in Mandeni, Kou-Kamma and Siyancuma and suffered steep declines in four others.
Any hopes of a post-G20 uplift for the party seem not to have materialised, with the ANC instead confronting new coalition headaches in at least three municipalities.
In Gauteng’s Merafong City, the ANC retained Ward 10 in Khutsong East but saw its support collapse from 76% to 49%.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and ActionSA both registered substantial growth, squeezing the ANC below the 50% mark, although it still maintains an outright majority in the municipality.
Turnout in the ward rose to 43%, reflecting intense campaigning on both sides.
In Johannesburg’s Ward 90, covering Hyde Park and Parkmore, the DA delivered a crushing victory, securing 97% of the vote.
The ANC managed only 3% as turnout collapsed to 18%.
The most consequential shift of the night came in KwaZulu-Natal, where the MKP seized Ward 17 in Mandeni from the ANC with 61% of the vote, marking one of its strongest by-election performances of 2025.
The ANC plunged from 65% to 30%, while the Inkatha Freedom Party fell to single digits.
The MKP hailed the result as a victory delivered by young people, declaring that “a new generation is shaping South Africa’s political future”.
The implications for Mandeni’s council are immediate: the ANC has now lost its outright majority and may need the African Independent Congress’ support to retain control.
In the Northern Cape, voters delivered one of the biggest shocks of the night in Siyancuma’s Ward 5 (Douglas), where an independent candidate aligned with a loose local grouping surged from a previous 15% to 47%, trouncing the ANC, which fell to 25%.
The PA also made inroads, boosted by a former ANC councillor running under its banner, while the DA and EFF slipped further behind, despite a high 66% voter turnout.
With independents now holding two seats in the municipality and the ANC reduced to five, the balance of power in the 13-seat council shifts dramatically.
A new coalition excluding the ANC is now possible.
Local independent leader, Danfrid Morolong described the victory as proof that communities are reclaiming agency from traditional party structures.
In Hantam Municipality’s Ward 7 in Middelpos, also in the Northern Cape, the ANC held on with 42% amid rising turnout.
Although the DA increased its share to 36% and the PA registered double-digits, the ANC’s ability to retain a sprawling rural ward was viewed internally as a vital success on an otherwise difficult night.
The Eastern Cape produced a mixed set of results for the major parties.
In Kouga Municipality’s Ward 2, covering Pellsrus and parts of Jeffrey’s Bay, the DA retained the ward with 47% of the vote.
The PA, buoyed by a candidate who previously ran as an independent, climbed to 27%, while the ANC fell to 25%.
Further inland in Kou-Kamma’s Ward 2 (Louterwater and Joubertina), the PA clinched a crucial victory over the ANC, securing 44% as the ANC slipped to 42%.
The DA fell sharply to 18%.
Turnout soared to over 60%, driven by an exceptionally high participation rate in Louterwater.
The PA celebrated the win as evidence that real change comes from leaders on the ground with the people.
This shift complicates governance in Kou-Kamma, where a non-ANC coalition is now viable.
In Makana Municipality’s Ward 10 in Makhanda, the ANC held the ward but with a steep decline from 67% to 50%.
The DA surged dramatically from 1% to 26%, which the party’s provincial leadership described as “explosive growth” that demonstrated rising confidence in DA alternatives, even in ANC strongholds.
The Makana Citizens Front slid to 10%, reflecting declining traction for local parties in the area.
The ANC now faces key defensive battles in the by-elections of December, including the high-stakes contest in Ekurhuleni, Gauteng and Theewaterskloof Local Municipality in the Western Cape on 10 December.
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