 said.){kind=link}
By Akani Nkuna
South Africa’s household affordability index is expected to stabilise in 2026, buoyed by good summer rains and a firmer rand that could ease pressure on key food prices, the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD) said.
PMBEJD Programme Coordinator Mervyn Abrahams told Inside Politics that improved local growing conditions and favourable currency dynamics were expected to support lower food inflation through the year.
“Our expectations for 2026 is that the prices will continue to be stable and that food inflation is likely to come down slightly. The reason for our expectation is based on the fact that we have had good rains across the summer and we expect good harvests to come in,” he said.
“The rand has also been doing very well against the US dollar, which should also have a lowering impact on input costs for farmers. Petrol prices have also come down a little bit, and that should help with logistics. We are expecting that food prices will essentially go down slightly during the year 2026.”
Abrahams said the stabilisation was likely to persist into the middle of the year, even as many households remained under pressure because the national minimum wage still lagged behind the cost of basic food needs.
In December, the national minimum wage stood at R4 606, 40 for over 60% of South Africans, compared with the cost of the food basket at R5 333, 45, he said, describing the gap as a key driver of the affordability crisis.
PMBEJD’s food basket is made up largely of essential items prioritising nutrition for children in affected households, including rice, flour, maize meal, fish, bread, white sugar, chicken, salt, and oil, among others. These products account for 52% of the food basket content on average for households, the group said.
In its monthly Household Affordability Index for December 2025, PMBEJD flagged what it called a worrying trend of essential food items being overpriced, which it said reduced incentives for households to buy them and contributed to nutritious food being removed from family meals. This had a knock-on effect for household health, well-being and child development.
Abrahams said food spending often competes with other fixed costs, including transport, and warned that lower food prices alone would not necessarily translate into improved nutrition if other household expenses rose.
“Access to food is not only dependent on food prices, it is also dependent on other household expenditure, in particular transport, electricity, and debt servicing. And if those increase, even if food prices come down, we will still see that the cost of living prices and the affordability crises will still mean that households consume below their nutritional level,” Abrahams said.
INSIDE POLITICS