By Johnathan Paoli
The ANC has held onto two important wards in Gauteng and the Western Cape in the penultimate round of by-elections for 2025, but the results show a marked weakening of the party’s support base.
In both provinces, rival parties made significant gains, signalling a more competitive political environment ahead of the 2026 local government elections.
In Ekurhuleni’s Ward 109 in Etwatwa Winnie Mandela, the ANC secured 37% of the vote, down dramatically from the 69% it achieved in 2021.
The ward, located near the Mpumalanga border and adjacent to major routes including the N12, has long been considered an ANC heartland.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of a veteran councillor and former mayoral committee member, and the absence of the Democratic Alliance (DA), which contested the ward previously, added further complexity to the race.
ActionSA delivered the most notable performance of the contest, rising from a modest 4% in 2021 to an impressive 25%, securing more than 1,000 votes and finishing a strong second.
The party achieved more than 20 percent in every district, peaking at 30% at the Christian Fellowship Family Church district.
This follows ActionSA’s recent successes in rural North West and in Khutsong. The Etwatwa performance confirms that the party is gaining traction in townships in eastern Gauteng.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) also grew its support, increasing from 16% to 20%, with particularly strong showings of 27% in the Christian Fellowship Family Church district and 25% in the Lekamoso Primary district.
It ultimately beat the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) for third place.
MKP, which had finished second in the 2024 provincial elections in this ward with 18%, dropped to 15% but still managed to win one district, Sazakhela Primary School, where it took 32% of the vote.
This was the only district in the ward not won by the ANC.
The ANC, despite holding the seat by 516 votes, saw steep declines across all six voting districts.
Its best performance was 46% at WJ Mpengesi School, down sharply from 71% in 2021.
Turnout fell significantly from 48 percent in 2021 to just 28 percent, reflecting the political fatigue that has defined many of this year’s by-elections.
In the Western Cape’s Ward 6 in Villiersdorp, Theewaterskloof, the ANC retained the seat with 33% of the vote, down from 49% in the 2021 local government election.
The ward, situated in a fruit-farming region near the Theewaterskloof Dam and connected to nearby towns via the R43 and R45, saw a competitive race influenced heavily by the defection of the ANC’s sitting councillor to the Patriotic Alliance.
She stood as the PA candidate, contributing to a dramatic surge for the party, which climbed from 6% in 2021 to 24% this week.
The DA, which has historically been strong in Theewaterskloof, fell to 20%, significantly below the 31% it registered in 2021 and reinforcing concerns about its declining foothold in rural Western Cape municipalities.
Its performance in the ward, however, aligns closely with its 2024 provincial result.
The EFF increased its vote share from 5% to 9%, continuing a gradual pattern of growth at the ANC’s expense, while the GOOD Party dropped from 7% to 5%.
A crowded ballot also included smaller parties such as People’s Movement for Change, MKP, the African Transformation Movement, and the Khoi Aboriginal Party, along with an independent candidate.
Although the ANC succeeded in holding the ward by 167 votes, the by-election highlighted the consequences of defections and the risks facing councillors who switch parties ahead of the 2026 elections.
Turnout rose to 47% from 40% in 2021, driven by local interest in the highly contested race.
The outcomes in both provinces reveal a shifting political terrain.
The ANC remains competitive but continues to shed support, particularly to ActionSA in Gauteng and to the PA in the Western Cape.
The EFF is strengthening modestly in both regions, while MKP’s position appears fluid rather than stable.
The final round of by-elections will be next week Wednesday.
In KwaZulu-Natal, ward 17 in King Cetshwayo district will be up for grabs between the MKP, ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party.
In Mpumalanga, ward 14 in Mkhondo, the ANC and MKP are expected to battle it out.
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